![]() ![]() It is one of the best tools we have to improve the accuracy of our decisions. Probabilistic thinking is essentially trying to estimate, using some tools of math and logic, the likelihood of any specific outcome coming to pass. Failing to consider the second and third-order effects can unleash disaster. It requires us to consider not only our actions and their immediate consequences but the subsequent effects of those actions as well. Second-order thinking is thinking farther ahead and thinking holistically. This type of first-order thinking is easy and safe, but it’s also a way to ensure you get the same results that everyone else gets. They can help us both figure out what we really want and the best way to get there.Īlmost everyone can anticipate the immediate results of their actions. They let us take on the impossible, evaluate the potential consequences of our actions, and re-examine history to make better decisions. Thought experiments are powerful because they help us learn from our mistakes and avoid future ones. In doing so, they can open up new avenues for inquiry and exploration. Thought experiments can be defined as “devices of the imagination used to investigate the nature of things.” Many disciplines, such as philosophy and physics, make use of thought experiments to examine what can be known. If you know the first principles of something, you can build the rest of your knowledge around them to produce something new. Sometimes called reasoning from first principles, it’s a tool to help clarify complicated problems by separating the underlying ideas or facts from any assumptions based on them. Understanding your circle of competence improves decision-making and outcomes.įirst-principles thinking is one of the best ways to reverse-engineer complicated situations and unleash creative possibility. When you are honest about where your knowledge is lacking, you know where you are vulnerable and where you can improve. If you know what you understand, you know where you have an edge over others. When ego and not competence drive what we undertake, we have massive blind spots. This is important to keep in mind as we think through problems and make better decisions. A map can also be a snapshot of a point in time, representing something that no longer exists. If a map were to represent the territory with perfect fidelity, it would no longer be a reduction and thus would no longer be useful to us. That’s because they are reductions of what they represent. To help you build your latticework of mental models so you can make better decisions, I’ve collected and summarized the most useful ones. Understanding them positions you to make fewer mistakes, see things others can’t, and take better actions. ![]() While there are a lot of mental models, there are only a hundred or so general ones that come from the big disciplines. Looking through both allows you to see more than either one individually. A red lens lets you see one thing and a blue lens lets you see another. Each lens offers a different perspective revealing new information. Think of each mental model as a lens through which you look at the world. Just as knowing where to stand turns a good photo into a great one, changing your perspective on a situation reveals critical information. The best way to reduce our blind spots is to change our perspective. In life and business, the person with the fewest blind spots wins. In a poker game where you could see everyone’s cards, you’d play your hand perfectly. If you had perfect information, you would always make the best decision possible. The source of all poor choices is blind spots. Relativity is a mental model that shows us we have blind spots and how a different vantage point can change everything. ![]() Margin of Safety is a mental model that helps you understand that things don’t always go as planned. Reciprocity is a mental model that helps you understand how going positive and going first gets the world to do most of the work for you. ![]() For example, velocity is a mental model that helps you understand that both speed and direction matter. Mental models help us understand the world. While far from perfect, they are a useful way to change perspective, simplify complexity, and solve problems. Any idea, belief, or concept can be distilled down into a workable model. A mental model is simply a compression of how something works. ![]()
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